It could be the electricity that goes first -- the national power grid brought down by confused microchips. It could be the  banks, brought  to  their knees by befuddled bookkeeping  programs  that think they've been flung backwards in time by a century. Or maybe it will be the telephone system. Or the stock markets. Government agencies like the IRS. Trains, planes, even some automobiles.

Whatever the order of our going, when the clocks on millions upon millions of computers and digital systems click over to "2000" at midnight on Dec. 31, 1999, we all may go down together.

That, at least, is the pessimistic warning from software  management expert Edward Yourdon. There are lots of opinions out  there about the so-called "millennium bug" or year 2000 crisis; no  one knows for sure what will happen when parts of our vast electronic grid  wake up on the morning of New Year's Day, 2000,  and  can't remember  what  day  it is. But the warning  voices  are  getting
louder:  Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan  told Congress, "Inevitable difficulties are going to emerge. You could end up with ... a very large problem."

In  the face of such uncertainty, Yourdon's new book, "Time  Bomb 2000"  (Prentice  Hall,  416 pages), argues for  caution  --  and prescribes  some  doses of healthy fear. Don't relax  and  think, "They'll have it fixed in time," and don't trust the  executives and  functionaries out there who blandly reassure you  that  they
have the situation under control, Yourdon warns: Unless they  can provide  written  assurances that their systems  are  "Year  2000 compliant," they are probably simply crossing their fingers. Most companies  and  institutions  got a slow  start  on  the  mammoth project  of updating all their old software and systems to  think
of years in four digits rather than two -- and in many cases it's already too late to finish in time.

Software  projects are notorious for running overtime -- but  the calendar  won't wait. And throwing hordes of programmers  at  the problem  at the last minute is likely to be worse  than  useless. Rushing  a software project, the saying goes, is like  rushing  a pregnancy  -- you can't make a baby in one month by putting  nine
women on the job.

But  the real kicker of Yourdon's argument lies in his notion  of "ripple effects." Even if your employer, bank, insurance  company and  electric utility all have their acts  together,  significant numbers  of companies and institutions won't. It will do  you  no good  to shop at a "year 2000 compliant" supermarket if its  distributors' computers have gone kaput and the shelves are bare.  A company  may  fix every line of software code  on  its  mainframe computer  systems,  only to be hobbled by bad code  in  "embedded systems"  -- chips that control mundane stuff like elevators  and security  systems  and factory machinery. Even if  only  a  small
percentage  of  companies get into trouble,  in  today's  economy we're  all connected -- and just a few percentage points of  year 2000 trouble could spell recession or worse.

Yourdon's  previous  books -- like "The Decline and Fall  of  the American  Programmer" and "Death March" -- were aimed at  professional  programmers. But "Time Bomb 2000," which  Yourdon  co-authored  with  his daughter Jennifer, is written for  the  general public. It provides the reader with exhaustive scenario- planning and  survival  advice  based  on  the  prospects  of  a  "two-day failure,"  "one-month failure," "one-year failure"  and  "10-year failure."

While  the book doesn't outright predict "a moderate, serious  or devastating collapse of the nation's socio-economic system," it's chilling  that  it even brings up the possibility.  Even  if  the worst-case  scenarios never come to pass, Yourdon argues,  "It's better  to  be terrified now." He has acted on  his  own  advice,
trading  in a New York City home for one in New Mexico -- on  the theory that Manhattan will be the worst place in the world to  be in the event that our economic infrastructure collapses...

Tampa  Tribune by Heather Kamins: One Tampa company  is  learning that problems caused by the Year 2000 computer glitch extend past technology. Medical Management Corporation now finds  itself  in court.  A  lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court  in  Newark,  NJ, against Medical Management claims versions of its Medical Manager software prior to the most recent release are susceptible to  the Year  2000 computer problem. The plaintiff, New Jersey physician Robert  Courtney,  is  seeking to get the older  version  of  the
software  fixed and compensatory damages... During the  next  two years, physicians  must upgrade their  computers..  The  Medical Manager  software is the most widely installed  medical  practice management system in the nation, supporting about 120,000  physicians.